Can Pakistan Afford Tense Relations With the USA? An In-depth Analysis of Pak-US Relations

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Can Pakistan Afford Tense Relations With the USA? Historical Context of Pak-US Relations

Pakistan came into being at a time when the world, though apparently celebrating the end of a long-lasting war, was in reality preparing herself for another prolonged, yet indirect, conflict between the two major winners of World War II: the United States (US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). For newborn Pakistan, it was a tough time as she had to join one of the camps to survive. This was necessary because she was just lying under the belly of the fast-growing USSR. At the time, Pakistan was not in a position to maintain her neutral status, so she joined the Western camp, led by the United States of America. Historians have pointed out many reasons behind this decision by Pakistan’s leaders, some of which are given below:

• Political leaders preferred the West because of their belief in God.
• Landlords and other rich political leaders of Pakistan were not in favor of communism.
• Both China and the USSR at the time were not in a position to help economically starved Pakistan.
• Some analysts also believe that Quaid-e-Azam was in favor of joining the Western bloc, and they cite his several speeches as evidence.

Causes Of Trump Letter To Imran Khan

Since then, Pakistan became the frontline ally of the USA for the containment of the USSR and communism. When the USSR attacked Afghanistan in the 1980s, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, in collaboration with the United States of America, launched Afghan Jihad and finally collapsed the eternal enemy of the United States. After the Afghan war, the relations between the two countries saw no progress for a while until September 2001, when militants attacked the World Trade Center. This event gave new life to the relations between the two countries, and once again, Pakistan became a major Non-NATO ally of the USA in the war against terrorism.

Over this long-term association, the relations between the two countries saw many ups and downs, but the relationship between the two countries survived in some form. Unfortunately, for the past one and a half decades, the ties between the two nations have experienced a regular downfall. The situation worsened when President Donald Trump announced his Afghan policy in August 2020, in which he blamed Pakistan, using harsh words, for not taking action against the Haqqani network and other militant groups in the region. In response, both Pakistan’s government and the general public adopted a hard stance. Some analysts and political experts in Pakistan even suggested giving up relations with the USA, as Pakistan has suffered so much loss in her war and still gets blamed. While they are right to some extent, the question remains: Can Pakistan really afford tense relations with the US?

To answer this question, let’s analyze it on the following grounds:

Alternative Options

If Pakistan has to break up with the US, it is necessary to look for at least a suitable, if not perfect, alternative to the United States. If we look around the world, we will find no perfect substitute because the USA plays a leading role in almost all major issues of the world. Some analysts consider the following states as options, so let’s examine them:

China

Though the friendship between Pakistan and China is unprecedented in its nature, China cannot be a perfect substitute for the USA. China is still facing major problems within its boundaries, so she will not be in a perfect position to help Pakistan in any tough situation. She is also facing many challenges from the USA and her allies, as well as from Russia and India. Plus, she currently does not hold the same status in the world as America does.

Russia

Relations with Russia are in transition. We cannot call her our next best alternative to the USA, especially when both countries share some bitter memories of the Cold War era. However, we should try to develop friendly relations with her. Fortunately, both countries have learned that their good relationship is in their mutual interest and are moving step by step towards closer relations. Still, it will require some time to become trusted partners. We should also not forget the role of India, which will likely try to keep Pakistan and Russia at tense relations.

Muslim Countries

Another commonly cited option is the Muslim countries of the Arabian Peninsula. However, most Arab countries have been in a state of war for the past few years, and some are on the brink of total destruction. Similarly, some leading Arabian countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have their own problems and, like Pakistan, are somehow dependent on the West. The only reliable non-Arab Muslim country that Pakistan can trust is Turkey, but she alone is not sufficient.

Europe

Deteriorated relations with the US would mean the same for Europe because the US is their leader, and Pakistan cannot afford that. Not only would it increase the number of adversaries, but it would also cost Pakistan significant economic loss. Almost 21.4 percent of Pakistan’s total exports go to Europe, which means a lot to a developing economy like Pakistan. Also, Europe is home to millions of Pakistanis who send millions of dollars in remittances each year to Pakistan, constituting a major portion of Pakistan’s economy.

IMF And World Bank

Pakistan, being a third-world country, often faces budget deficits and thus turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for loans. In case of a breakup with the US, Pakistan may lose access to this source of financing as well.

Trade And Remittances

Just like Europe, the US is also home to millions of Pakistanis who send millions of remittances back to their homeland annually, a major part of Pakistan’s economy. A major portion of Pakistan’s total exports go to the United States. According to the United States Trade Representative’s report, Pakistan was the 57th largest goods trading partner of the USA in 2016. This means we may face a major economic loss in terms of exports if relations worsen.

Call Of The Time

For stable economic development, Pakistan needs to learn from past mistakes and avoid repeating them. Economic development requires stable relations, not only with the USA but with every single nation in the world. We should learn from China and India’s foreign policies. Despite many odds with the USA and India in the past and even today, China maintains stable trade relations with them and earns money. India did the same after joining the USSR camp, keeping her relations normal with the USA.

Conclusion

It is clear that to survive politically, socially, and economically in the international community, Pakistan must keep its relations with the United States steady. Every state has its own role in the international political arena, and one cannot replace another. To overcome all challenges, Pakistan needs to revisit its foreign policy and avoid taking sides.